ACT Visiting Scholar Emphasizes Need for Early Warning and Intervention Systems

Students who are most at risk of dropping out of school can be identified as early as middle school through key indicators—poor attendance, unsatisfactory behavior, and course failure in math and English. When one of these off-track indicators is exhibited as early as sixth grade, students have less than a 25 percent chance of graduating from high school.

“The earlier students fall off track, the worse their odds are of making it to high school graduation,” said Robert Balfanz, a research scientist at the Center for Social Organization of Schools (CSOS) at Johns Hopkins University. “Kids don’t have just one bad day or bad week, and then drop out. It’s actually about a two- to four-year process of steady decline.”

Robert Balfanz

These “disengaged” students represent the largest category of dropouts. Because this process of decline goes on for several years, it is possible to identify these disengaged students and intervene with them. Other students may leave high school because of life events, while still others appear to be doing well, but simply decide to quit.

Balfanz spoke on “Early Warning and Intervention Systems: Promises and Challenges for Policy and Practice” as part of the ACT Visiting Scholars Lecture Series held in late January on the ACT campus. He shared findings from CSOS research on high-poverty schools in urban areas. These schools account for a disproportionately high percentage of all high school dropouts nationwide.

By the time students reach ninth grade, many are already too far behind to be successful, so this research has focused on earlier identification of students who are at risk. Balfanz and his colleagues studied sixth graders at high-poverty middle schools in urban areas and found that attendance, classroom behavior, and failed courses played a significant role in their subsequent academic success. They also learned that sixth graders in high-poverty environments have unique challenges that impact their school attendance and performance.

“People in poverty tend to move around a lot, causing their kids to miss a lot of school. Students in big cities take mass transportation to school, so it’s easy for them to play hooky and not have anyone find out,” said Balfanz. “There are other factors, too—such as gangs, which recruit young males.” Family situations are also important. For example, twelve-year-olds in single-parent homes often miss school to care for their younger siblings when they become ill, so that the parents can go to work.

“We often make the problem worse by putting large numbers of kids with demanding emotional, social, and academic needs in educational settings with no support services and teachers who are already stressed,” he added. “So how do students react? They pick fights, stop going to school, or miss so much school that they fail and have to repeat a grade.”

Balfanz and his colleagues have developed a computerized database that allows school staff members to closely track the three indicators—attendance, behavior, and course failures—to detect early which students need help. Johns Hopkins compiles and analyzes the data on the three indicators. Schools receive help to coordinate services for appropriate interventions for students.

There are many parallels between the work of Balfanz and his colleagues and the Rigor & Readiness initiative, in which ACT has partnered with America’s Choice and several school districts across the country. Rigor & Readiness includes an aligned system of assessments—to better understand students’ strengths and weaknesses—tied to a tiered system of interventions and supports. Early warning indicators like those used in Balfanz’s work are included. There is also significant assessment data regarding students’ achievement, motivation, and engagement that can provide an improved early warning system, as well as more specific information about the types of interventions and supports that are needed.

Robert Balfanz, a research scientist at the Center for Social Organization of Schools at Johns Hopkins University, spoke in January on the ACT main campus in Iowa City as part of the ACT Visiting Scholars Lecture Series. Balfanz gave a public lecture on “Early Warning and Intervention Systems: Promises and Challenges for Policy and Practice” and led a seminar on “Factors Affecting Student Risk.”